BRICS, Russia, and India: 2024 Developments and Implications

India

Vladimir Putin has met with Narendra Modi, the Indian Prime Minister at the BRICS Summit in Kazan.

This is what they had to say:

Putin:

“I am delighted to welcome you to Russia, this time to Kazan, a magnificent historical city on the Volga.

I warmly remember your visit to Moscow and our fruitful talks in July. We regularly speak on the telephone. I am grateful that you accepted our invitation and came to the BRICS Summit in Kazan in person.

Here in Kazan, we are to make a number of important decisions to enhance the efficiency of efforts made by BRICS and to strengthen multilateral cooperation within the group. We value our cooperation on this track, considering that our nations were instrumental in founding BRICS.

Russian-Indian relations are characterised by a special privileged strategic partnership and continue to develop actively. Interaction between legislative bodies is strengthening, and our foreign ministers are in constant contact.

Trade is also in good shape. The next meeting of the intergovernmental commission is scheduled for November 12 in New Delhi.

Large projects are consistently developing, and we welcome your decision to open a Consulate General of India in Kazan. Expanding India’s diplomatic presence in Russia will contribute to the further development of bilateral relations.”

Modi:

“First of all, let me thank you from all my heart for your friendship and the warm and hospitable welcome. I am happy to have the opportunity to visit the beautiful city of Kazan to take part in the BRICS summit.

India has deep-rooted historical ties with this city. Once the Consulate General of India opens here, our relations will become even stronger. This is my second visit to Russia in the last three months, which demonstrates the close coordination and strong friendship between our countries.

As you mentioned, we held a bilateral summit in July in Moscow. Our discussions helped promote our cooperation in all areas. You have successfully chaired BRICS since the beginning of the year, and I would like to congratulate you on this.

Over the past 15 years, the BRICS group has developed a special identity, and today many countries are interested in joining it. I am looking forward to our discussions within BRICS. 

We maintain regular contact regarding the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. As I said before, we believe that problems must be solved by peaceful means. We fully support the establishment of peace and stability as soon as possible. In all our efforts, we give priority to humanity, and we are ready to provide any possible assistance in the future.”

Analysis & Implications

Modi’s mentioning of the Ukraine conflict was to stress that New Delhi does not approve of any war and to maintain his anti-violence stance, which is generally a Hindu philosophy but also meant to be noted by Western powers that he does not want to alienate in showing full-blooded support for Russia. However, India is also not prepared to sacrifice its development for a relatively unimportant and potentially troublesome partner such as Ukraine. Following Modi’s visit to Kiev to discuss a peace plan, Ukrainian President Zelensky stated, among other insults, that “Modi and Indians are uneducated”, remarks that did not go down well in New Delhi.   

As concerns Russia, it is an entirely different picture. India is a rapidly growing economy and is currently both modernising and raising the welfare of its citizens at unprecedented rates. 2024 GDP growth is currently at 7%, one of the highest in the world. This is also being achieved with the world’s largest population – some 1.45 billion. But this requires huge amounts of energy, and without it, the Indian economy would falter, and probably usher in a worldwide depression.

Russia has therefore become an immensely important trade partner for India and is buying up all the cheap energy resources it can find. Bilateral trade is currently expected to reach US$65.6 billion by 2024, and the two leaders have pledged to increase this to US$100 billion by 2030. Much of this trade is in oil, but India is now also not just content with purchasing energy, it wants to be involved in the supply chains and added value sectors. For this reason, Russia is working with India in the building of the next generation of icebreakers in Gujarat, Western India, which will be deployed for work in the Arctic. Similar Russia-India ventures that insert themselves into trade and supply chains can be expected in the future.

The energy sector however is multisectoral, and India is also working with Russia over nuclear power plants as the country looks to rapidly improve its domestic energy output.

There are however significant balance of trade issues, with Russia acquiring far more Indian rupees than it can dispose of. Western financial sanctions have also become a trade hindrance. There are solutions, in that Russia has been using some of its massive rupee holdings – estimated to be worth about US$8 billion at the beginning of 2024 to invest in Indian securities – also good business for Modi. That amount has now been whittled down however and now stands at US$3.5 billion. Nonetheless, Russia is keen to have Indian companies sell more products to Russia to reduce the imbalance and further offload those rupees. The statement of trade increasing to US$100 billion made by both men is indicative that the Russia-India trade space is entering a new period of growth, dynamism, and innovation.

Putin is also involved in furthering the Indian influence on a global basis, something that Modi (and most Indians) feel is long overdue. That includes reform at the United Nations and a pledge by Putin to have India given a permanent seat on the UN Security Council.  How that happens given the United States is likely to veto any proposal of this type is unclear, however, the UN Secretary-General was also in attendance at BRICS and can be expected to be mulling the issue over.  

Further Reading

Russia To Start Exporting Lentils To India

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