Fiscal Swings and Roundabouts As Russia’s Petroleum Revenues Rebound In December

Russia’s oil and petroleum product export revenue reached US$11.35 billion in December, up US$250 million from November but down US$3.21 billion from a year earlier, the International Energy Agency said in its monthly report. Oil exports increased by 620,000 barrels per day last month to 7.55 million bpd.

Russian oil exports in December increased by 250,000 bpd to 4.91 million bpd, partially offsetting the November decline, and rose 450,000 bpd compared to December last year. Petroleum product sales grew 370,000 bpd MoM and 630,000 bpd YoY to 2.63 million bpd, driven by higher refiner throughputs. Sales of gasoil and naphthta also increased significantly, by 280,000 bpd and 170,000 bpd, respectively.

Urals FOB Primorsk and ESPO FOB Kozmino prices fell US$5.94 and US$5.67 MoM, respectively, to US$37.59 and US$48.25 per barrel, resulting in a US$140 million drop in oil revenue, while petroleum product revenue grew US$380 million. Urals crude remained below the $47.60 per barrel cap in December, while ESPO approached that level. The European Union has announced a new price cap of US$44.1 per barrel effective February 1.

New EU restrictions banning imports of products from Russian crude come into effect on January 21, so buyers are exercising more caution regarding the origin of finished products. The IEA said India reduced its imports of Russian crude by 620,000 bpd in December, switching to supplies from the Middle East, up 640,000 bpd, and primarily from the UAE, up 340,000 bpd. The Urals DAP West Coast India/Dubai M1 delta increased to US$4.35/bbl. Indian refineries processing Russian crude exported 170,000 bpd of petroleum products to the EU and the UK in December, bringing its total dependence on seaborne deliveries of petroleum products from Russian crude via sea routes to 230,000 bpd last month.

The IEA said that in 2025, approximately 2.4 million bpd of petroleum products were shipped by sea to the EU and the UK, 12% of them Russian products, 80% from India and 15% from Turkey. Another 130,000 bpd were received from the MOL refinery in Szazhalombatta and from Slovnaft in Slovakia, which still depend on Russian crude.