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The new threats by US President Donald Trump to place an additional 25% tariffs on European exports entering US markets emphasize just how naïve European politicians have been when it comes to international diplomacy and foreign affairs. In threatening such measures should the EU (and specifically Denmark) do not agree to cede Greenland to the US; Washington has demonstrated quite clearly that its behaviour over the past four years – including both the Biden and Trump administrations – has been exclusively calibrated to bring about European subservience. Everything else associated with that sole aim has purely played a supporting role – including the Ukraine conflict.
Europe meanwhile has been completely blindsided in this strategic global game of poker – so much so that they weren’t even aware they were in the game. This is how Europe was defeated, in seven quick moves over four years:
Establish European Animosity Towards Russia
Trump had already softened up Europe back in his first term as President when he stated in 2018 that NATO members were not paying enough money for the services provided and complained that the EU was buying too much oil and gas from Russia at the same time. That warning went hand in hand with US attempts to successfully create conditions in Ukraine that eventually lead to Russia’s involvement to stop the conflict in the Donbass, which had been on-going since 2014. The first EU sanctions against Russia were issued in 2014 when that broke out, but Trump in 2018 sowed the seeds for further European fear of Russia by complaining about the energy purchases and threatening to pull out of NATO if Europe didn’t contribute more. It was ample warning of what was to come. From that moment on, Western media began to vilify Russia and point fingers at Moscow for all their problems. Today, that has reached levels akin to an outright hatred of Russia – and the Russians – to an almost racist degree.
Create the Conditions For A De Facto War Between Europe and Russia
This essentially began back in 2014 with the Maidan revolution in Ukraine, which resulted in the overthrowing of an elected government and the introduction of a pro-Western regime. That was pro-EU and pro-NATO and helped pave the way for Ukraine’s exit from the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). That created significant problems in east Ukraine, with the Donbass regions and Crimea seriously affected by having their long-standing regional markets made more expensive and preferential tariff regimes cancelled. The effect was immediate – Crimea held a referendum to join the Russian Federation, while the Donbass regions declared independence. Russia, wary of becoming involved – supported the separatists but declined direct involvement until 2022, when Putin sent in troops and military equipment – and NATO then entered Ukraine to fight them. The EU then began to provide military equipment and money to support Ukraine.
Reduce European Reliance On Russian Energy, and Replace It With American
Shortly after this, the EU imposed sanctions on the purchases of Russian oil and began a transition to acquire supplies from other sources, including from the United States at amounts generally about three times higher than the Russian prices. Notoriously, oil supply infrastructure was also targeted with the still-unexplained attacks on the Nord-Stream 2 pipelines from Russia to Germany.
Make Europe Financially Responsible For The Conflict With Ukraine
Trump, aware that the Ukraine situation was proving unpopular with the American public and the justification for the volumes of money being sent to Ukraine, then announced, in stages, that the US would stop financing the Ukraine conflict and that it was ‘Europe’s problem’. Military aid to Ukraine was finally stopped in March 2025. The EU has been financing the effort ever since, most notably by raising taxes and sending a recent €90 billion finance package to Ukraine, who have also replied that it is ‘not enough’. Rumours of massive fraud in weapons procurement and financial embezzlement between the EU and Ukraine have also begun to surface.
Make European Businesses Reliant Upon & Uncompetitive With The United States
This has been a double-pronged attack, with the higher energy prices impacting European productiveness, hammered home by a shell-shocked Brussels agreeing to an uneven trade agreement that places zero tariffs on US imported goods into the EU, but adds 15% tariffs on EU imported goods into the United States. This has also encouraged the flight of European capital to the US; large EU corporates such as Volkswagen have cancelled plans for expansion in the EU itself, shelving a €2 billion EV investment in Wolfsberg, closing an existing plant in Dresden, and investing instead in Chattanooga. If that doesn’t tell you something is seriously wrong with the European economy – then nothing will.
But it also means that EU productivity has deteriorated on a global scale. An example is the issue over a relatively simple product – gluten wheat, in which European production is now nearly seven times more expensive than the equivalent product in neighbouring Russia.
Issue Tariffs Against Europe To Make It Additionally US Compliant
The average 15% import tariff on EU products being sold into the United States is shortly, if Trump gets his way, about to rise another 10% to a total of 35% if the Europeans do not follow his lead and allow him to take over Greenland. Here, the actual purpose of the imposition of tariffs and sanctions has been finally revealed – not as punishment, even if dressed up as such for undesirable behavior (such as ‘invading Ukraine’) but as coercement.
Begin To Take Over European and Other Assets
The result? The United States plan to take over Greenland, the Venezuelan President has been kidnapped with Trump claiming the US now ‘controls’ that Venezuela’s oil supplies (45% of the world’s total reserves) and a US running rampant over established norms. Iran, although tricky, may well be next. The world is being remade – while Europe looks on in shock.
Ordinarily, of course, in times of great stress such as this, they could call upon Russia perhaps to assist – there is no doubt that Putin can handle Trump better than any EU leader. But much of Europe – with a handful of exceptions – have largely burned their bridges with Moscow.
The United States (Back Of The Envelope) Profitability Equation
When calculated from a basic investment perspective, the equation looks rather like this:
Total Expenditure
Amount US committed to Ukraine to ensure the EU were on board: US$187 billion
Cash Flow Income 2025
Increase of US export trade with the European Union in 2025: 11.3% over 2024, an increase of about US$38 billion.
Value increase of tariffs from 1% average in 2024 to a 15% average in 6M 2025 (the trade deal kicked in from June), being about US$300 billion, providing additional revenues of US$45 billion.
Total: US$83 billion for 2025
2026 Prediction
The overall US exports to EU trend for 2026 is positive, based upon a weaker dollar and some European economic recovery. Average forecasts assume a 5% growth, meaning an addition US$4 billion increase in exports over 2025.
Assuming EU exports to the US are static, a full year of 15% tariff revenues would result in US$90 billion raised, for a ball-park total figure of increased US revenues from EU trade of @US$94 billion.
If Trump inflicted tariffs of 35% (the existing 15% plus the threatened 10%) on EU imports, and as a result they halved, this would still generate taxable income of US$105 billion.
Return On Investment:
A full return of the US investment into Ukraine, paid for by increased revenue streams from the European Union by February 2027.
Future Profitability
Based on current data and anticipating no further changes – cashflow revenues of @US$100 billion per annum from 2027.
Summary
The interesting aspect to this theory is just how clean the procedural and development aspect to this appears. It is not chaotic – and therefore doesn’t fit into the general pattern of ‘conspiracy theories’ which tend towards the absurd or contain missing elements. Instead, it appears to be a clear cut, logical pattern of events that make planned, progressive sense.
There are some other pointers that suggest a longer-term American policy that is carries on regardless of Presidents – and the words of Vladimir Putin come to mind when asked his opinion of the re-election of Donald Trump over the previous Biden-Harris administration. Putin replied that it ‘made little difference.’
As concerns the European Union and United Kingdom – they have been played and have lost without even realising it. That is probably the most appalling political situation to have been in and adequately addresses the sheer incompetence of what has been going on without the Europeans even being aware.
The additional tragedy of the situation is that the one man they could have called, capable of possibly standing up to Trump or at least watering down the United States’ worst excesses – is Vladimir Putin. But we just cannot see any way that the European Union can rebuild its bridges with Russia, which has moved on to pastures new, well away from the EU itself.
The United States has undoubtedly won this gigantic game of poker both with and against Europe and absolutely – turned up Trumps. After all – the Donald used to run casinos.
Further Reading
Trump’s 500% Tariffs Against India, China and Brazil, and the Venezuela Oil Issue: Analysis
