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Russia will likely turn to Libya to mitigate its reliance on or replace its Syrian bases for its military logistics and objectives to project power into the Mediterranean, according to the US based Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Libya is the only country with a Russian military presence in Africa that Russian cargo planes can directly reach from Russia without refuelling. Heavier cargo planes can reach Libya only by flying over Turkish airspace. This increases the political leverage that Turkiye can hold over Russia as well as the practical costs of supporting Russian operations in Africa if more cargo planes stop to refuel at other airfields.
The Kremlin had already increased Libya’s role as an operational hub for its various Africa Corps (previously the Wagner Group) deployments in sub-Saharan Africa throughout 2024, with Moscow sending at least 1,000 soldiers and 6,000 tons of equipment to Libya via Syria in March and April 2024. Russia’s Africa Corps then deployed some of these soldiers and equipment to sub-Saharan countries.
Russia also refurbished several bases in Libya in 2024 to accommodate Russian cargo planes and expand the storage capacities of the bases, meaning that Russia’s newly upgraded military facilities in Libya could handle some Russian logistics traffic that previously went through Syria.
Africa Corps sources told the French magazine Jeune Afrique on December 9 that Russia could expand its use of airports near Benghazi. This presumably refers to al Khadim Air Base, which is roughly 88 kilometers east of Benghazi. It has also been reported that Russia significantly renovated three other air bases in 2024—al Qardabiyah and al Jufra in central Libya, and Brak al Shati in southwestern Libya. These upgrades included renovations to the airstrips to expand runways and enable Il-76 cargo planes to land. All three bases are 300-650 kiometers farther away from Russia, however, which means that planes would have to carry less cargo to be in range for direct flights.
These renovations are part of the modernization that the Kremlin promised Libyan warlord Khalifa Haftar in 2023 in exchange for using the port of Tobruk to berth military vessels and eventually establishing a Russian naval base there. Haftar and Putin have not announced any formal agreement, but a Russian naval base at Tobruk would help offset the negative logistics and strategic impact of any Russian loss of its Tartus port in Syria.
Russia may already have begun to upgrade infrastructure at Tobruk for a future naval base, with Russian officials claiming that Tobruk was already able to support Russian refueling, resupply, and repair of their naval vessels.
Further Reading
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