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Russian customs data indicates that over the past ten months, China has purchased US$849 million worth of enriched uranium from Russia – a 3.2-fold increase compared to the same period last year. In October, Chinese imports doubled from September, reaching US$216 million in value. Imports generally increase in the lead up to the winter months.
Beijing is now poised to become the largest importer of Russian nuclear fuel, following Moscow’s ban on enriched uranium exports to the United States. That has seen US purchases immediately drop by 30%, with further decreases likely, meaning the US will have to search for alternative sources of uranium.
Earlier this year, Washington announced a ban on purchasing Russian low-enriched uranium but allowed the Department of Energy to issue waivers until 2028 in cases where no alternatives exist or if the shipments are deemed “in the US national interest.” In 2022, Russia was America’s top foreign supplier, providing almost a quarter of the enriched uranium that fueled US commercial nuclear reactors, according to the US Energy Information Administration.
However, in response to Washington’s restrictions, Moscow banned enriched uranium exports to the US altogether last week, including shipments to other countries under foreign trade agreements with entities registered within American jurisdictions. Exceptions will only be made for supplies under one-time licenses approved by the Russian Federal Service for Technical and Export Control and only if they align with Russia’s own “national interests.”
South Korea has also increased its uranium purchases from Russia and has now become the second-largest importer of nuclear fuel from the county.
Russia hosts the world’s largest uranium enrichment complex, accounting for almost half of global capacity. Moscow’s share of the enriched uranium market is estimated to be around 40%, with an export value of US$2.7 billion.
The Russian President, Vladimir Putin told a government meeting in September that some countries are happily stockpiling Russian resources and goods while imposing restrictions on Moscow. He suggested limiting exports of certain strategically important raw materials, including uranium, to ‘unfriendly markets’ in response to Western attempts to block Russia’s access to foreign-made products. This may impact US and EU winter energy supplies from 2025.
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