Русский
Russia could increase pork exports to 320,000-350,000 tonnes in 2025, according to Yury Kovalev, the CEO of the Russian National Union of Pork Producers. A more precise forecast will depend on whether China expands the list of Russian suppliers or if it will continue to include only three companies.
Kovalev that “Without any expansion of the Chinese list, Russian exports could reach 320,000-330,000 tonnes, and with a Chinese expansion opening of access for new companies, about 350,000 tonnes. If new Russian producers do not receive access in 2025, we forecast that exports to China will total 60,000-70,000 tonnes. But if another five or six companies are certified at the beginning of next year, one can hope for an increase in volume to 100,000 tonnes.”
China is the world’s largest consumer of pork, and has strict safety measures in place regarding its distribution and consumption. The country has faced outbreaks of swine flu, killing millions of pigs to prevent its spread and necessitate the expansion of imports.
Kovalev said that China is important because it drove the growth of exports this year. Russian exports of pork products, including meat, by-products, pork fat and live pigs for slaughter, grew by 28% to over 280,000 tonnes in the first 11 months of 2024. He stated that “The Chinese market, which opened to Russian suppliers in February, accounted for most of the growth. Already in July Russia increased its share of Chinese pork imports to more than 5%, which made it possible to become one of the five largest suppliers of this meat to China for the first time. By the start of December, almost 38,000 tonnes of pork had been shipped to China, as a result of which China became one of the top three buyers of Russian pork in the first 11 months of 2024.”
The European Union dominates China’s Pork import market, with a 51% share of China’s total annual imports. However, the EU is involved in trade tensions with China, with Russian producers seeking to take advantage of this and push the European market share into a decline.
Shipments to markets that were open before 2024 rose 11%, as Russia already has a substantial market share there. In Belarus, for example, this is 100% and in Vietnam about 50%. The union expects exports to China to reach almost 45,000 tonnes for the year, and overall Russian pork exports to top 300,000 tonnes. Russia exported 222,000 tonnes of pork products in 2023.
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