Russia’s 2024 Economic Soft Landing

Russia’s economy continues to successfully battle through hardships while continuing to grow stronger, The Economist has reported on March 10, and has repeatedly “defied the doomsayers”. The publication added that Russia’s economic performance appears to be returning to pre-conflict levels despite numerous rounds of unprecedented sanctions imposed by the West over the past two years.

Russia has managed to rein in inflation, which was a cause for concern late last year, the paper noted, stating that “Data to be published on March 13th are expected to show that prices rose by 0.6% month-on-month in February, down from 1.1% at the end of last year. On a year-on-year basis inflation is probably no longer rising in Russia, having hit 7.5% in November.”

The Economist credited the success to the timely actions of the Russian Finance Ministry and the Central bank. The Ministry’s exchange-rate controls supported the Ruble and reduced the price of imports while the bank’s decision to double interest rates led to the inflation slowing down.

In consequence, Russia now appears to be heading for a “soft landing,” the weekly said, with inflation slowing down without inflicting serious damage to the economy. GDP meanwhile grew by more than 3% last year, while unemployment rates remained at a record low. Business closures were also at their lowest in eight years, according to the report, while also noting Russia’s “resilience.” Russian businesses also found effective ways to overcome the restrictions imposed by the West by establishing “durable supply chains with ‘friendly’ countries,” to the point where Russia now receives more than half of its imports from China.

With trade relations secured, Russian exporters are ditching the discounts on their goods that were originally introduced after the Western sanctions push. The discount on oil Russia offers to Chinese customers, for instance, has fallen from more than 10% in early 2022 to about 5% today, and that these new policies were bringing in more revenues and profits for the Russian companies.

“The Russian economy appears to be proving the pessimists wrong,” the weekly said, adding that it is “once again back on track.”

The International Monetary Fund has also expressed surprise that the Russian economy is growing faster than many experts predicted, and revised its growth forecasts for 2024 to 2.6%, up from previous expectation of just 1.1%.

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