Russia’s Aircraft Manufacturers To Move Into Aircraft Export Industry

Russia’s Trade and Industry Ministry is making plans to prepare a program to get Russian manufactured aircraft onto the international market, according to Anton Alikhanov, the Trade and Industry Minister.

The move comes a Russia has been barred from purchasing the standard Airbus and Boeing aircraft however already had a significant domestic aircraft manufacturing industry. That has adapted to the demise of Western aircraft availability and instead boosted its domestic aviation manufacturing to point whereby in the next three-four years, Russia will have surplus aircraft manufacturing capabilities and can produce more than it needs.

Alikhanov said that “We’re proceeding from the fact that production capacity and the demand that we see on the horizon of 2030-32-35, this production capacity is clearly greater than the demand formed on the Russian market. Perhaps I’m getting ahead of myself, but it’s obvious that by 2027-2028 we will have to prepare serious proposals for the Russian government regarding a program of measures to enter the international market. This is work that will require the creation of internationally recognized certification centres, as well as infrastructure for servicing our planes abroad.”

He said it is premature to give a financial estimate for this, but that “we will definitely do such work, because we certainly need the effect of scale. We need a market, and it exists.” This initiative is also part of Russia’s development plan to 2030, which has called for 50% of the domestic Russian fleet to be operated by Russian-built aircraft by that time, reaching over 80% by 2038. Russia is the world’s third largest aviation market after the United States and China, carrying 105 million passengers in 2021.

Alikhanov said the most promising Russian aircraft for exports is the mid-range Yakovlev MC-21, deliveries of which are now expected to start in 2025. The global market for this type of airliner amounts to “several thousand planes annually,” Alikhanov estimated.

Production plans for civilian aircraft in Russia are laid out in the comprehensive program for the development of the country’s aircraft industry to 2030, which was updated in May. That confirms the delivery of almost all Russian-built airliners as being for 2025 for the MC-21, and the Tupolev Tu-214 and 2026 for the Sukhoi SJ100, and the Ilyushin Il-114-300 Turboprop. Once the Russian market has absorbed their fleet requirements, these models can be earmarked for the export market. The smaller, Ilyushin Turboprop is an ideal aircraft for smaller ‘hops’ of up to 2 hour flights and is suitable for some of the smaller, developing markets that may not have the infrastructure to properly support jet aircraft. This is especially the case in parts of Latin America and Africa.

The regional BRICS countries are the obvious targets, with these having a largest predicted air passenger growth data, with South and Southeast Asia at 7.4%, Africa at 6.4%, Latin America at 5% and the Middle East at 4.8%. In contrast, the European and North American air passenger growth predictions are rather lower at 3.8 and 3.4% respectively. With production costs significantly higher in the West than in Russia, Russian aircraft exports could be a global new trend into the 2030’s.