Russia’s Central Bank Forecasts Russia’s 2024 GDP Growth To Be 4%, Details Anticipated 2025, 2026, 2027 Growth Rates

The Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) forecast for Russian GDP growth during 2024 is 3.5% – 4%, however, the final estimate for economic growth this year could exceed 4%, according to Kirill Tremasov, an advisor to the CBR governor.

Tremasov, speaking at the Russian Economic Forum in Chelyabinsk, stated that “In 2023, Russia’s GDP growth amounted to 3.6%. Rosstat usually reviews the figures at the end of the year. I think that at the end of 2024, we’ll get an estimate for last year of upwards of 4%. This year our growth rates are also tracking at 3.5% – 4%. After all the peer reviews, I wouldn’t be surprised if it will also be upwards of 4%. There have been two years of very high growth rates for the Russian economy.”

He also said “With this picture taking shape, which is leading to an acceleration of inflation, we are forced to raise the key lending rate, in order to stop an overheating of the economy and return to a balanced growth trajectory. Such a growth trajectory, by our estimates, is 1.5% – 2.5% per year. Next year we expect a slowdown.”

Tremasov also said “The Russian economy has deviated from its equilibrium trajectory during 2024, and hit the production capability ceiling. It’s impossible to grow further at such rates, simply because we face a labor shortage and are already at 100% production capacity utilization.”

These comments suggest that Russia needs to expand its production capabilities and infrastructure – issues that we have been following over the course of the year. This however takes time, the building takes time, new machinery needs to be installed, and Russia still needs to solve its labor shortage issue.   

Tremasov said “Russia could grow this quickly (4%) when capacity was available and there were available labor resources. Now these are in short supply, therefore growth will naturally slow. These are normal processes. The Central Bank forecasts Russian GDP growth of 0.5% – 1.5% for 2025, 1% – 2% for 2026, and an arrival at a balanced growth trajectory of about 2.5% in 2027. We see that the Russian economy can smoothly move along these predictions.”

In comparison, the World Bank has forecast the following GDP Growth Rates for other major economies as follows:

Further Reading

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