Русский
Russia’s Kirill Dmitriev is to attend the World Economic Forum’s annual Davos meeting of global leaders, the first time a Russian has attended since the WEF suspended participation in 2022. Dimitriev is the CEO of Russia’s Sovereign Wealth Fund, RDIF and has been involved in negotiations over settling the Ukraine conflict. He is due to meet US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in continuations of discussions that originally took place in Alaska.
The American side is sending its largest-ever delegation to the event, where the United States, including President Donald Trump can be expected to be brash about their global intentions. Trump especially has been extraordinarily bellicose towards Europe recently over US designs concerning Greenland and has threatened additional tariffs of 10% from February 1st on imports into the United States, increasing to 25% from June 1st should leaders not agree to allow the US to acquire the territory. These would apply to all goods shipped to the US from Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, and the United Kingdom. All are sending delegations to Davos, while Ukraine’s President Zelensky is also attending and is scheduled to meet with Trump.
Europe has been completely blindsided by the United States insistence that Greenland (Danish territory) should be given to the United States, with politicians and media vilifying American demands, while Trump says he needs the territory to protect the United States from Russia and China. That puts the EU in the position of agreeing with a Russian viewpoint at the same time as engaging in conflict with Russia over Ukraine. The situation is quite bizarre. It also has the great potential of turning into a complete bun fight.
What to look out for
The main issue at Davos is the attitude of the Europeans. They are currently torn between support for Ukraine and support for Greenland, with America distancing themselves from the first and aggressive over the second. European attitudes now towards the United States are volatile and full of mixed signals. They could protest by walking out of speeches however this is likely to be seen as weakness and an inability to negotiate. They could also be more bellicose and attempt to stand up to Trump however he has a powerful, united team with him whereas the Europeans are somewhat divided, even over Ukraine. Alternatively, they could acquiesce and make concessions to placate Trump’s immediate demands. If so, we anticipate further trouble for the EU down the line.
Behind the scenes
It is entirely possible that Trumps aggressiveness over Greenland is a ploy to distract the Europeans, disorientate them, sow geopolitical divisions, and then drag them when beaten up enough to the negotiating table to agree a deal concerning Ukraine.
This seems likely given that Trump’s claims over Russian designs on Greenland seem to be far from based on facts, and appear more designed to frighten the Europeans once again.
Thus far the Europeans have been steadfast concerning Russia and have not been willing to make any concessions, continuing to support Vladimir Zelensky’s views even in the face of the obvious on-the-ground realities. If so, we can expect increasing rhetoric and threats to be issued by the US to encourage feelings of disunity and fragmentation throughout the EU. The point ultimately being that threats to take over Greenland are indeed a ply to soften the Europeans up before pushing through an agreement concerning Ukraine.
Caveat
With Davos 2026 being a Donald Trump event, anything is possible.
Further Reading
How The United States Played Poker With Europe – And Trumped Brussels
