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The Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov and Marco Rubio, the US Secretary of State, are holding preliminary discussions concerning their relations and resolving the Ukraine conflict in Saudi Arabia. That is with a view to a bilateral President to President summit to be held between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump. However, before negotiations can commence, much work, including agreements on how to proceed, need to be undertaken first, and lines of communication reestablished.
Neither Lavrov nor Rubio have met before, with their only prior communications coming in phone calls to set up the Saudi summit, with the last one being on February 15.
The US side has also gone through extensive changes with new personnel and even government departments now in existence that were not in place when the two President last met in Helsinki in 2018 – over five years ago. During this time, relations between the two countries have fallen to their lowest ever level with bare minimal contact. Those communication structures need to be reconnected and the individuals responsible and the connectivity channels all agreed – prior to any discussions about Ukraine. The Russian Foreign Ministry has also said that the main item on the agenda between Lavrov and Rubio is the normalization of relations and the activation of contacts.
Dmitry Peskov, the Russian presidents press secretary, has also stated that the first discussions will be concerned with the restoration of the entire range of Russia-American bilateral relations, followed by agreements on how to begin discussions about Ukraine.
Almost all dialogue between Russia and the United States was frozen at the initiative of the previous US President, Joe Biden, in early 2022 when the Russia-Ukraine conflict began. Moscow-Washington relations subsequently reached levels lower than during the Cold War, with the two sides barely talking. Initial discussions are likely to include global strategic development issues rather than Ukraine – another reason why the EU, UK and Ukraine have been sidelined.
These talks can be expected to revolve around the future of bilateral relations between Russia and the United States, the security architecture of the Eurasian continent and the rest of the world. Interestingly, Rubio has already mentioned that the time of American unipolarity is now over and that the world will have to move towards multipolarity. This is a significant deviation from the status quo that has developed over the past 200 years and may in fact be the primary, longer term issue that arises out of this summit. It will not be purely about Ukraine.
Illustrating this is an apparent US gesture of goodwill – Dmitry Peskov has stated that the activation of a bilateral dialogue is already having an impact. Apparently, the US Treasury is developing a list of approximately 20 Russian banks that will be reconnected to the SWIFT system and will be able to carry out a full range of operations. It is possible that Visa and Mastercard will return to the Russian market, and that user cards will be reactivated.
Then there is the role of Saudi Arabia.
A Saudi delegation will also be involved, and will probably include Mohammed Bin Salman, the Saudi Crown Prince. The agreement to host the summit in Saudi Arabia is also of note: previous Russia-US summits used to be held in Helsinki, however Finland has subsequently joined NATO. Whether Helsinki will regret this decision as it has now sidelined itself away from being a global deal-maker between superpowers is a moot point, however Riyadh maintains good relations with both Russia and the United States and has significant trade relations with both. US-Saudi bilateral trade reached US$25.9 billion last year, and with Russia, close to US$5 billion. Saudi Arabia has also shown interest in joining the BRICS group, with a decision still pending. While Bin-Salman is almost reviled in Europe, he is considered a pragmatic and forward-thinking personality by both Putin and Trump. It is likely that he will act as a mediator between the two sides.
Then there is Ukraine.
Sergey Lavrov has already stated when discussing a future peace process that there can be no talk of any territorial concessions to Ukraine and emphasized that European countries have no business in the negotiations on Ukraine if they are aimed at freezing the conflict for the further arming of Kiev. That appears to have been taken on board: European leaders have not been invited to participate.
Without the Lavrov-Rubio discussions and in the absence of any outcome as of now, it is too early to talk about any progress concerning Ukraine. That will be hammered out by both the Russian and American sides should Putin and Trump meet.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Zelensky has said that he knows nothing about the negotiations between Russia and the United States and does not intend to recognize them. Perhaps coincidentally, he is also to attend meetings in Riyadh, but a day after the Lavrov-Rubio meetings on February 19. According to Zelensky, that trip was planned a long time ago, and Zelensky has ruled out any contacts with either Lavrov or Rubio. However, some sources claim that a Ukraine-United States dialogue will still take place, but only after the Russian-American interaction. Zelensky, if that happens, will talk a lot about security guarantees for Ukraine.
The European Fait Accompli
American Vice President J.D. Vance also spoke about this subject at last week’s Munich Security Conference, and identified the real problems for European security – mostly being within European policies, and a lack of leadership to date. He also stated that he is ready to come to Moscow for talks. The US position now appears to be that the Europeans need to pay for their own security, including the purchase of American weapons.
It is possible that after the conversation between Lavrov and Rubio, the leaders of the two countries will meet very soon. This could happen by the end of February. Both Putin and Trump have expressed their readiness for a face-to-face conversation several times, meaning that at the organizing of a Presidential summit should be on the agenda of the negotiations between the Russian and American delegations in Riyadh.
What seems increasingly likely to happen is that Russia and the United States will make an agreement concerning global strategy and security moving ahead, with added input from Saudi Arabia also on the regional issues involving Palestine. It would be an interesting scenario if Russia were able to provide some Palestinians a home – Russia needs to boost its population and has a labour shortage.
Then an agreement on Ukraine is likely to be struck. What could happen then is that both Ukraine and Europe would be faced with a fait accompli to pick up the security arrangements and implement them under US instructions. If so, it will represent a complete turning point for the future direction of the European Union. At present, it retains a fear based on Soviet-era thinking that Russia is the aggressor and needs to be defeated, or even broken apart. Clearly, attempts to do so under the banner of a conflict in Ukraine have not worked. Meanwhile, Russia has completely restructured its economy, looked instead towards the global south, and has left its Soviet past behind.
The Saudi Arabia summit can be expected to not just resolve the Ukrainian conflict, but to deal with the Palestinian fall out – and if European politicians are capable – push them into a new Eurasian mindset of collaboration as opposed to isolation. If not – the current batch of European politicians who got Europe into this situation – and who are mostly anti-Trump, Putin and Bin-Salman in any event – can be expected to face extreme political and trade pressures to give up their existing grips on EU policies and be replaced by a team more aligned with the development of a multilateral world order.
Further Reading
