Tomato Wars: Russia Simply Replaced EU Imports With Azerbaijani Produce

Azerbaijan exported 145,600 tonnes of tomatoes in 2024, up 3.6% compared to the previous year, accordig to the Azeri State Statistics Committee, while the value of the product also increased – by 8.3% to reach US$175.4 million. In 2023, Azerbaijan exported 140,600 tonnes of tomatoes worth US$162 million.

In both cases, the primary buyer was Russia, accounting for a massive 97.4% of Azerbaijan’s total tomato exports. Last year for example, Russia purchased 141,800 tonnes of Azerbaijan’s produce of this single crop, valued at US$168.7 million. It is a Russian purchasing market that has increased 3.2% in physical terms and 7.88% in value over the past 12 months.

While Azerbaijani tomato farmers have been experiencing a production boom, the real case study here is the reason why – Russian’s didn’t suddenly begin eating a lot more tomatoes. The reason is the ill-advised sanctions placed on Russia, which lead to Russia imposing bans on imported European fruits. Russia’s leading suppliers of tomatoes prior to 2022 had been Italy, Spain and Portugal. That market has now disappeared.

The result is another example of what will eventually become an academic standard in global economic trade studies: the imposition of sanctions should not be undertaken without fully understanding the consequences. In the EU / Russia case, it should have been obvious that Russia would retaliate in kind over banning of fruit imports, however even that appeared to have been discounted. Furthermore, it appears no consideration was given as to where Russia could potentially mitigate against these supply chain disruptions and simply source from alternative markets. Yet the answer was immediately obvious: Russia is a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States, an organisation in existance since 1991 and which includes major fruit exporting economies such as Azerbaijan, Armenia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Such a scenario – which is exacly what happened – is not hard to imagine or understand – yet EU politicians and their advisors failed to grasp even these small trade basics when it comes to Russia.

These attitudes have permeated the EU to such a degree that even common practical sense has disappeared. A radical overhaul, Trump-Musk style in completely overhauling the EU’s trade efficency and auditing both the quality of personnel, the policies enacted and how to rebalance the blocs import-export strategy should be undertaken. The EU’s trade problems (which negatively impact its producers) doesn’t just stop with the humble tomato. The EU Commissioner Ursula von der Lyen is under criminal investigation, audit and accountability pressure concerning pharmaceutical imports.

On the other hand, Russia’s trade and import-export infrastructure have proven themselves highly capable of adapting. The results can be seen in the respective economic performances. While the tomato wars aren’t a major contributor, they are symptomatic. The underlying message is that the EU desperately needs trade and political policy auditing. Where is the European DOGE?