US-Russia Black Sea Negotiations: What We Know So Far

Update: March 26
Both Russia, the United States and Ukraine have made announcements concerning a Black Sea agreement, which confirm our evaluations below – the primary issue is the resumption of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which in order to progress must involve a ceasefire in order to allow Russian and Ukrainian shipping access to global grain export markets. However, apart from this basic agreement, details still need to be worked out and it appears the Ukrainian and Russian sides have differing opinions of what this means. Ukraine has stated they will not operate a Black Sea ceasefire ‘beyond the Eastern Black Sea’ which effectively means that Russian ships attempting to exit the Black Sea via the Turkish Straits to the West could be attacked. Russia meanwhile has stated that in order to provide grain access to third countries in Africa and Asia, it also requires the Russian Agricultural Bank to have SWIFT connectivity restored, an easing of sanctions on the related shipping, and that a deal must include all of the Black Sea area. As it stands therefore, no Black Sea agreement has been reached, with the United States still trying to negotiate solutions.

Russia and the United States held substantial discussions in Riyadh on Sunday (March 23), in the latest of what will be a step-by-step process as concerns Ukraine security. At Sunday’s discussions, the topic of security and a cease fire in the Black Sea region, and the possibility of a resumption of a Black Sea Grain Initiative were the main topics of discussion.

The Black Sea Grain Initiative

The original Black Sea Grain Initiative was brokered by Turkiye and the United Nations in mid-2022 that permitted Russian and Ukrainian shipping to ship grain exports without the threat of being attacked. These supplies are critical to many countries’ food security, including in Africa and South Asia. However, Russia suspended the agreement in July 2023 following two specific allegations: that Ukrainian ships had been abusing the agreement to instead ship arms; and that most of the grain supplies intended for Africa and Asia had instead been shipped to the European Union as higher prices meant the EU outbid smaller economies.

Tellingly, both Egypt and Pakistan at that time, along with several smaller nations, reported serious deficiencies in grain supplies and domestic food security. Russia eventually obtained permission to ship emergency grain supplies to six of the most-needy African nations free of charge.

Since then, new supply chains avoiding the Black Sea, and the decision by Russia to expand its shadow merchant shipping fleet have helped alleviate matters somewhat, however the situation remains far from ideal as concerns global food security. Part of the negotiations are to restart another version of the Black Sea Grain Initiative and recommence exports from both Russian and Ukrainian Black Sea Ports.

Black Sea Shipping Security

Achieving this however is proving difficult, with the subject of ‘safety of navigation in the Black Sea’ being the main issue. Taking part in todays US-Ukraine discussions has been Sergei Leshchenko, an adviser to the Head of the Ukrainian Presidential office. He has stated that “We were talking about a mutual ceasefire: we will not attack Russian facilities at sea and rivers, and they will not attack our facilities, our Kherson and Nikolaev ports, the ports of Greater Odessa.”

That appears to be a claim that Ukraine will not target the Kerch Strait Bridge, which links mainland Russia to Crimea and has been the subject of several attempts to destroy it.

Meanwhile, US attempts to introduce both Russia and Ukrainian delegations, using ‘shuttle diplomacy’ as they were both staying at the same hotel in Riyadh, and which American representatives were to supervise, did not occur, suggesting there is a long way to go yet.

Summary

A statement on these discussions is expected to be released later today (March 25). We do not expect it to reveal very much. However, what is important to note is the international agenda of these talks – they are more to do with global food security concerns as opposed to an actual cease fire, although US President Donald Trump has stated that a Black Sea cease fire could act as a precursor to a general cease fire between Russia and Ukraine.

Our view is that both Ukraine and Russia are being placed under international pressure and humanitarian food security concerns to at least reach some agreement in the Black Sea. Here, the impetus is with Moscow – the food security weak points are in Africa and Asia, both regions where it has significantly more diplomatic clout that Kiev, and increasingly, than Brussels. What sympathy there is for Ukraine – and to some extent the European Union – could well disappear if the global south becomes convinced that neither Kiev nor Brussels are listening to their concerns.

If the messages coming from the Black Sea negotiations point to European needs demanding most of the grain, and Ukraine and Europe hesitating to allow Russian grain exports to markets where it is most needed, the global opinion as regards resolution could very much start to move increasingly to Moscow’s favour at the United Nations – and leave both Europe and Ukraine isolated.