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The OPEC+ Alliance countries, which includes Russia, are preparing for the next phase of oil production increases, which are scheduled for next month. The quota increase of 188,000 barrels per day marks the final step of the current programme phasing out voluntary restrictions, impacting energy costs and operating expenses for transport companies.
The decision affects seven oil producing states: Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman. Following the September increase, their alliance intends to pause further volume increases through the end of 2026. The pause allows for negotiations establishing new baseline production levels to calculate quotas starting in 2027. New production quotas will be negotiated by 1st January 2027.
The current increase forms part of a strategy unwinding voluntary production cuts of 1.65 million barrels per day adopted in 2023. After September, production will increase to roughly 2 million barrels per day. Allocating these quotas among participants remains a subject of discussion, as several countries, including Iraq, press for higher shares citing expanded production capacity.
The decision to increase oil production comes as the actual production figures in the current fiscal year often fell below approved quotas. The reasons for this include logistics disruptions and export difficulties triggered by geopolitical instability in the Middle East and the conflict in Ukraine, affecting supply chains from Russia, Kazakhstan, and Persian Gulf states.
For vehicle fleet owners and logistics operators, OPEC+ decision dynamics serve as a key indicator of future diesel fuel prices. Despite plans to expand supply, the alliance maintains flexibility: official statements emphasize that future quota adjustments depend on global market conditions and can be adjusted if necessary.
In parallel with production increase plans, agreement participants confirmed commitments to compensate for overproduction occurring since January 2024. Complying with these agreements remains a priority for maintaining supply and demand balance, determining petroleum product price volatility over the medium term.
In terms of supplies to the EU, officially Russia now supplies just 3% of the blocs oil needs, down from 27% in 2022. However, supplies to Hungary and Slovakia are maintained, directly importing Russian crude oil via the southern branch of the Druzhba pipeline, operating under temporary exemptions to the EU’s maritime oil embargo. In addition, the EU has been importing refined oil products from India and Turkiye whose crude oil origins are Russian. About 80% of the EU’s refined oil products were sourced from India and 15% from Turkiye in 2025. A large proportion of that was refined in these countries but from Russian supplied crude.
Shipments from refineries continuing to mix or process Russian feedstock still find entry points into European markets, suggesting that the actual Russian origins of the EU’s refined oil imports remains considerably higher than is generally acknowledged.
