What To Expect From BRICS 2025? 

Brazil has just become the new Chair of the BRICS group, taking over from Russia. The 2025 BRICS summit can be expected to be held in Rio de Janeiro, where the G20 also met just a few months ago, ensuring Brazil retains a global focus of key economic participants. Many in Brazil already regard the BRICS as an alternative G20, with Rio continuing to promote its sovereign global agenda — the fight against poverty, reform of the global tax system and international organizations. In addition, Brazil will work to develop a unified BRICS payment system, continuing the Russian initiative. We discuss the likely agendas for 2025.

Brazil’s Priorities

Brasilia requested a change in the order of the BRICS chairmanship in order to highlight Brazil’s moment in the global spotlight as it chaired the G20 last year. Doing so keeps Rio in the spotlight and highlights its potential as a global power broker. The Brazilian President, Lula da Silva has already said that the theme for BRICS 2025 will be “Strengthening Cooperation with the Global South for more Inclusive and Sustainable Management” which promises much in the development of infrastructure systems for the bloc.

Putin In Rio?

A major issue for Brasilia to determine is whether Russian President, Vladimir Putin shall attend. Brazil is a party to the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court (ICC), which has issued a contentious arrest warrant for Putin, although Brazil argues that immunity for leaders is necessary to maintain peaceful relations between countries. Last year, during the G20 summit, Brazil offered to provide the Russian leader with guarantees of safe entry into the country, and this is likely to remain the case. In the event, the Russian delegation was led by Sergey Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister with Putin keen not to make the G20 all about him. But that might change for the BRICS. There is also precedent now for ignoring the ICC request, as Mongolia did in September last year, viewing it as a ‘European’ issue. With no EU countries members of BRICS, the clamour for Putin to be arrested in Rio will be diminished.    

2025 Global South Development Issues

Brazil will be making a larger issue of the concept of the ‘Global South’ than has currently been the case, as unlike fellow BRICS founding members Russia, India and China, most of Brazil lies south of the equator. That means a greater emphasis on Latin America and Africa for 2025.

Brazil is therefore likely to focus its efforts on issues of economic development and the fight against poverty and inequality, which are significant issues for the global south but less so for Brazil’s northern partners.

Southern perspectives concerning emerging global trends will also develop, as the global south has different stress levels – an increasing population, poverty, lack of infrastructure, and the impact of global warming than the northern hemisphere does, which has also tended to accumulate more wealth. This then will illustrate (or not) the unity of BRICS – are its northern hemisphere members prepared to invest in the south?

Part of the key here will be finance, but also the unique opportunity issues the global south can offer, which coupled with new tech can create the new global dynamism that the so-called ‘West’ (mainly northern hemisphere) will be unable to match.   

With the global south possessing significant human capital, putting that asset to work and raising communities in Latin America and Africa will be an important issue. If managed correctly, these regions can become global economic drivers for the second half of this century and power it into the next.   

But getting there is another matter. For this reason, Brazil has proposed specific BRICS group discussions on the perennial issues such as education, health and climate change programmes, but to be accelerated by the active use of digital governance and artificial intelligence.

Hand in hand with that goes reform of the current global institutions to bring them up to date with this emerging new world. This includes reform of the international financial system, and international tax reform.

We can also expect a climate focus, as Brazil will also hold the COP-30 presidency in November. Brasilia  will want to use the BRICS platform to reach consensus on climate issues, and use this as a springboard for a successful holding of COP-30 in the later part of the year.

BRICS Partner States

Another issue on the agenda will be discussions concerning the status of the BRICS Partner countries introduced during 2024 and that some have taken effect from January 1. Thirteen countries were granted this status: Algeria, Belarus, Bolivia, Cuba, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Nigeria, Thailand, Turkiye, Uganda, Uzbekistan, and Vietnam.

Brazil will have to determine exactly what rights this category of states will have, although Sergei Ryabkov, Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister did recently outline their status, clarifications are still required.

In addition to this, several outstanding issues need to be addressed – the BRICS status of Saudi Arabia, and in Latin America itself, whether there has been any shift in Argentina’s position. The country was invited to join BRICS in 2023, accepted, and then with a new President and government in power, withdrew the acceptance. Having a powerful BRICS event right next door will prove interesting for Buenos Aires, another country in the global south. Brazil also has some regional political issues to address as concerns BRICS – both Nicaragua and Venezuela were 2025 BRICS Partner candidates, but this was vetoed by Brasilia. How far Brazil, as Latin America’s largest economy, is also prepared to accept other LatAm competitors into its global south orbit remains an as yet unresolved issue.

Other Potential New BRICS Members

The 2025 Brazilian Chairmanship of BRICS will be geared towards the integration of the recently acceded countries, rather than for further expansion of the association. Brazil seems to be satisfied with the accession of Cuba and Bolivia to the ranks of BRICS partners and will work to consolidate their presence in the group. However, given Brazil’s physical position, Brasilia may wish to be seen providing some assistance to other regional partners within the BRICS framework. If so, this can be expected to include Colombia, which is seen as one of the potential candidates for accession. Bogota and Brasilia have already discussed this issue. In addition, Colombian Foreign Minister Luis Gilberto Murillo, has previously confirmed his country’s interest in cooperation with the BRICS.

BRICS is especially attractive to countries in the Global South due to a number of interrelated factors that go beyond economic considerations, extending into the political and strategic spheres. BRICS allows the countries of the Global South to gain access to strong partners, as well as gain greater representation in the international arena.

UN Security Council Reform

Brazil will likely also call on the BRICS to unite in requesting reform at the United Nations. The UN Secretary-General, António Guterres, attended the BRICS 2024 summit in Kazan, for which he was lambasted by the West and Ukraine in particular. However, there is a growing awareness that the UN has become dysfunctional and unrepresentative.

Brazil will draw the attention of the BRICS countries to the need for global reform of the UN Security Council. That position is also endorsed by China and Russia. How this can be achieved is an interesting point given the current, entirely undemocratic manner in which UN Security Council voting takes place. Attempts to introduce change are simply vetoed. But at some point this will come to a head.   

BRICS Trade Infrastructure

There are intra-BRICS issues to resolve as well, and especially as concerns financial mechanisms and trade. During 2024, Russia developed a detailed proposal for a new independent infrastructure. A proposed cross-border payment initiative is based on national currencies and interaction between the Central Banks of the participating countries. Brazilian companies for example, would pay for Russian oil and gas through national currencies instead of the US dollar (which is not allowed to be transferred to Russia). Brazil can be expected to deepen these initiatives and determine further steps. US President Trump has threatened the BRICS countries with 100% US import tariffs on their exports to the United States if they carry this out. However, on the other hand it is impossible to prevent sovereign nations from using their own sovereign currencies. This dilemma between what Trump says and what he will do will rear its head in multiple and vociferous ways during the year.   

Further Reading

Russia’s 2024 Presidency Of The BRICS And Looking Ahead To 2025: Ryabkov Interview