American Hedge Fund Manager Predicts A Russian Economic Boom

Jim Rogers, the legendary American investor and hedge fund manager has predicted a Russian economic boom once the Ukraine conflict ends, allowing foreign investors to return to the market.

In an interview he gave on January 8^th, Rogers said the resolution of the conflict would stabilize the geopolitical situation and positively impact Russian bonds, the ruble, and foreign investment. Many non-Russian investors have seen their funds blocked due to Ukraine-related sanctions and Moscow’s countermeasures since early 2022.

In March last year, Russia launched an asset-swap scheme allowing Russian and foreign investors to exchange frozen Western securities for immobilized funds in Russia. Two rounds of the scheme freed some ₽10.64 billion (US$102 million) in foreign assets. However, Rogers, whose Russian portfolio includes shares in state airline Aeroflot, did not participate at that time. However, he has said that he wants to retain Russian assets and is looking forward to buying more as soon as foreigners have the opportunity to trade on the Russian market.

Rogers stated “I would be happy to buy more Aeroflot shares, I would be happy to buy Moscow Exchange shares, I would be happy to buy something if there is real peace. If the situation changes, perhaps I will be driven to pay more attention to Russian bonds and the ruble.”

Rogers said the Russian market is currently unsuitable for most foreign investors due to conflict-related risks, including fears of asset confiscation. However, he predicted a drastic shift following a resolution, leading to a market boom, higher bond prices, and a stronger ruble. He added that shares in the Moscow Stock Exchange (MOEX) and stocks in travel and tourism could become significant beneficiaries once geopolitical tensions ease.

Others agree. The UAE Sovereign Investment Fund bought 6.86% of the Moscow Stock Exchange last September.

Rogers also linked his optimistic outlook to Donald Trump’s US presidential election victory. Trump has pledged to resolve the Ukraine conflict upon returning to the White House, and his incoming special envoy for Russia and Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, recently expressed hopes for a resolution within the first 100 days of Trump’s inauguration on January 20. Rogers noted that Trump “really wants” to resolve the situation but said that achieving peace will require negotiations with Moscow.

Regarding the world economy, Rogers warned of a looming global recession by mid-spring 2025, predicting that it would be “the worst” in his life. He attributed this to growing US national debt and Trump’s potential import tariffs on Chinese goods, which he said could severely impact global trade and the economy, likening the potential fallout to the Great Depression of the 1930s. He added that the US dollar would weaken as a safe-haven currency, leading to a downturn in the global stock market. In which case, in a curious paradox, Western funds could migrate to emerging economies – such as Russia and the BRICS economies. Russia has already been introducing tax concessions to attract overseas funds.