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2024 was marked by distinct changes in Russia’s foreign trade turnover, as sanctions and geopolitical instability forced the Russian economy to adapt to a new normal. Despite these challenges, exports grew by 0.5% to reach US$278 billion in value, while the focus of attention of Russian suppliers was Asia, Africa and the CIS countries. It is worth noting that Russia’s exports in 2021 were US$492 billion, meaning that Russia lost a significant proportion of its exports trade during 2022 and 2023. However, this is now showing signs of recovery. Where that is taking place can be seen below.
Changes in Russian Exports
Russia’s Federal Customs Service says that export values increased by 0.5% last year, amounting to US$278 billion. As we have already indicated, the supply chain structure has undergone significant changes. Asian countries took the leading position in terms of export volume in value terms last year with US$209.2 billion of the total.
In second place, despite sanctions, is the European Union. The volume of exports to the EU in 2024 amounted to US$43.8 billion. In third place was Africa, receiving a total export volume of US$16.4 billion. It is worth noting that if current trends concerning the European Union and Africa are maintained, the African continent will become a more important trade partner to Moscow than Brussels. This goes a long way to explaining Russia’s constant diplomatic and trade developments with African countries over the past year. A search of ‘Africa’ in our search function at the top of this website page will reveal just how extensive that has been.
What Russia Exported
The basis of Russian exports remains mineral goods (oil, gas and their derivatives), metals and products made from them, such as food products and agricultural raw materials. Of the total supply, 61% came from mineral raw materials, 14.5% from metals, and 10% from food and agricultural goods.
Reorientation
A key feature of Russia’s export performance has been a reorientation to Asian markets, where including the Middle East and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries became the main progressive feature of exports during 2024. This trend is explained by new logistical factors and economic circumstances. Western sanctions caused an increase in logistics costs and limited the volumes of financial transactions with foreign partners. But as a result, Russian companies began to strengthen domestic production capacity and look for new export destinations.
The Chinese market has become attractive due to the growth of its middle class, estimated at about 500 million, and continuing to grow, while the Middle East has shown high demand for unique goods.
Russian companies are now actively adapting their products and marketing strategies to the specifics of these markets. Such changes include the localization of packaging, design, marketing materials, and the use of digital tools.
Changes in Russian Imports
It is a similar answer in terms of where Russia sourced products from – the supply chains have moved, mainly from the European Union – to Asia, where the trend towards logistics of goods from Southeast Asian countries intensified during 2024.
Russian imports from China reached volumes worth about US$115 billion for the full year, while in second place was India with exports to Russia worth about US$72 billion during 2024. Third was the traditional market of Belarus, who exported goods worth about US$25 billion to Russia, while Russia imported goods worth about US$10 billion from Latin America, and from Africa about US$2.5 billion. In total, Russia’s imports during 2024 were worth about US$225 billion. In 2021, Russia imported goods worth about US$376 billion.
Almost completely cut out from the Russian market in the period 2021-24 have been Germany, the United States and South Korea and they now export minimal amounts to Russia.
Although Russia’s import volumes have declined, its internal economy has been growing and it now has a GDP (nominal) of about US$2.24 trillion. In 2021 it was measured at being US$1.84 trillion. This economic growth coupled with a decline in imports means that Russia has become more economically productive and is also now manufacturing products domestically that it had previously imported.
What Russia Imported
The main types of imports into Russia are machinery and electronics, clothing and footwear, cars and spare parts for them, food and drinks, medicines and equipment. The range of Russian imports expanded in 2024 and grew to include items with various applications (manufacturing and construction), machine tools, pumps, compressors, fans, air conditioners, measuring instruments, plastic and rubber products, ferrous products, kitchen appliances, furniture and household items such as white goods.
Supply Chain Routes
Several countries have emerged as new key supply chain partners in Russia’s overall foreign tade makeup. Prominent among these have been Türkiye, the UAE, Singapore and Vietnam. Among the CIS countries, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan are among the largest supply chain partners.
2025 Russian Trade Headwinds
Sanctions and financial restrictions will continue to negatively affect foreign trade turnover between Russia and the European Union, meaning that the share of Asian and African countries in Russia’s overall trade make up will continue to grow.
However, it should be recognised that identification of the actual sourced volumes can be difficult to ascertain as Asian countries are also a bypass supply channel for sanctioned European goods, and therefore logistics chains have become more complicated. It is now uncommon for EU goods to be imported into Russia via near-Asia countries such as Armenia, Georgia, Kazakhstan and Turkiye. It is now extremely difficult to give an unambiguous assessment of the real source of product import flows as these are often mixed with goods in transit from countries who on paper have sanctioned Russia but continue to service the Russian market.
Russia’s 2024 Trade with the European Union
Russian imports from the EU decreased significantly in 2024. In 2021, about 50% of all Russia’s import traffic came from the EU and has decreased several times over the past three years. As an example, Russia’s imports of EU goods decreased from €90 billion in 2023 to €64 billion in 2024, a loss of about 30%. Most of this was G2G energy related products related to servicing still-needed Russian LNG supplies. Settlements for trade with EU countries were carried out mainly through special, sanctions-approved accounts in Euros and Rubles. The Russian market for most EU entrepreneurs and SMEs has been completely destroyed and replaced by Russian products or imports from alternative suppliers in Asia.
In terms of Russian exports to the European Union, the second half of 2024 showed an improvement. The main exports from Russia to the EU were LNG, fertilizers, iron and steel.
However, during 2025, the current downward trend in the share of exports and imports between Russia and the EU and other unfriendly countries is likely to continue, while the market share of Russian trade with friendly and neutral countries will continue to grow.
Trading Currencies
When paying for exports and imports, Russia’s state policy has been to develop payments in national currencies and avoid the US dollar and Euro. According to the Russian Central Bank, the 2024 share of the US dollar, Euro and other unfriendly countries’ currencies in trade settlements was about 18% of the total volume. The currencies of friendly countries (Tenge, Rupee, Dirham, RMB Yuan) accounted for 42%. The Russian Ruble as a means of paying for exports and imports is most popular in the Caribbean (59.4%), Oceania (73.1%) and Africa (92%).
The transition to payments in national currencies is largely due to problems when making payments under contracts and the impact threats created by third party financial sanctions. For example, most Chinese banks stopped accepting money from Russian importers at the beginning of 2024. This is why many companies were forced to radically rebuild their financial logistics systems, a process that is still on-going but is now being used with increasing effect, such as QR codes and Cryptocurrency use in commercial trade.
As a result, the share of global trade payments in US Dollars and Euros has also substantially decreased, as countries such as China also continue to de-dollarise their foreign trade. Instead, payments have begun to be made more often in Chinese RMB Yuan. The US dollar will remain the global dominant currency however its popularity is declining. A combination of other factors that could possibly arise during 2025 – a US default, tariff wars, and other wars or natural disasters could combine to magnify the US debt and create more global market volatility around the currency.
2025 Russian Foreign Trade Forecasts
Forecasts for the exports and imports of Russia and its companies for 2025 are hard to predict, with many differing opinions, mostly due to sanctions restrictions that slow down foreign economic activity. If, when, and how the Ukraine conflict is resolved is also a major unknown. Although Russia has an export-oriented economic model, imports will probably grow in during 2025 as investment in infrastructure, and changes in geopolitics and domestic trends are factored in.
There remain a lot of reorientations to do, and infrastructure investment also needs to reach their potential returns, representing a lot of work in progress. For example, supply chains such as the Far Eastern Maritime Corridor, the North-South Transportation Corridor, and the Northern Sea Route are still nowhere near their potential. Russia internally is still undergoing a great deal of road, rail and port infrastructure builds, as well as similar connectivity developments with countries such as Kazakhstan, Iran, and China.
Other new, emerging markets are undergoing their own infrastructure transitions, many assisted by China’s Belt and Road projects. Yet many remain works in progress and may not yet play much of a role in immediately increasing Russia’s foreign trade during 2025.
During the year, the use of digital marketplaces, social networks and local partnerships will be a key tool for Russian companies entering new markets and vice versa. Success will depend on the ability of Russian exporters to overcome the competition, adapt and overcome the geopolitical risks and continue adapting products to the specifics of target markets. It is a similar situation for companies from friendly countries wishing to access Russia.
For these reasons, we feel that in general, Russian exports could reach about US$290 billion in total value for 2025, and Russian imports reach US$190 billion. This represents progress; however, any infrastructure boom we feel will not occur until 2027. This means there is plenty of time for both exporters and importers to begin to scale up and prepare for what we feel will prove to be a Russian market with dynamic new world trade opportunities.
Further Reading
