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Republika Srpska President Milorad Dodik said that the Balkan countries should not join the European Union, whose economic and political situation is deteriorating and leading to disintegration. He assured that this year too, January 9 will be celebrated as a public holiday – Republika Srpska Day. The country has been part of Bosnia and Herzegovina since its formation in 1992, but cultural, religious and political differences have strained relations. This led to Dodik’s announcement last April that he was ready to decide on Republika Srpska independence if pressure on the republic from foreign players continues.
According to its constitution, Republika Srpska has its own president, legislature (the 83-member unicameral National Assembly of Republika Srpska), executive government, police force, court system, customs service (under the state-level customs service), and postal service. It also has official symbols, including a coat of arms, a flag (a variant of the Serbian flag without the coat of arms displayed) and its entity anthem.
Although the constitution names Sarajevo as the capital of Republika Srpska, the northwestern city of Banja Luka is the headquarters of most of the institutions of government, including the parliament, and is, therefore, the de facto capital.
Dodik however now faces imprisonment and a ban on engaging in politics in Bosnia, however he is protected by his own military force. He announced that the Dayton Accords, concluded 30 years ago, which stopped the Bosnian war and laid the foundations for the republic’s statehood, are dead, and announced Republika Srpska independence, stating that January 9 will be celebrated as a public holiday — Republika Srpska Day.
However, the Bosnian Constitutional Court has previously declared this holiday illegal, with the EU based Venice Commission declaring it discriminatory. That has sharply increased the degree of confrontation between the government of Republika Srpska and the government of Bosnia.
The high representative of the international community in Bosnia, Christian Schmidt, warned the Republika Srpska leadership last year that celebrating Republic Day on Jan. 9 was a criminal offense. To this, Dodik replied, “There is no force that can disrupt the celebration.” It subsequently took place, with a parade and a procession of thousands. In addition to local police units, sanctioned Russian bikers Night Wolves took part in the celebration, and in addition to Republika Srpska flags, demonstrators carried Serbian and Russian flags. The same will be the case today.
In response, Bosnian Defense Minister Zukan Helez has banned Serbian planes or helicopters from flying through Bosnian airspace – including through Republika Srpska – on January 8 and 9, although it remains to be seen how Serbia complies with the Republika Srpska airspace directive.
The United States is also likely to be involved – last year, two American Air Force F-16 fighters flew over Republika Srpska territory on January 8 in a show of potential military force.
What will happen next remains to be seen. The government of Bosnia and Herzegovina, the European Union and the West generally consider Republika Srpska’s independence illegal, although Moscow has stated that the Russian Federation will continue to support Republika Srpska within Bosnia and Herzegovina so that Banja Luka has the strength to realize its sovereign line.
Dodik is being sanctioned for ignoring the decisions of the Constitutional Court and the high representative of the international community who serves as the external administrator for Bosnia and Herzegovina, a post held since August 2021 by Christian Schmidt. He is a member of the Christian Social Union and is essentially in charge of EU affairs in Bosnia, as well as compliance with the 1992 Dayton Accords that ended the Bosnian war. However, Moscow has said that the appointment of Christian Schmidt as High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina is illegitimate without UN Security Council authorization and Russia will not recognize the nomination.
However, in December last year, the Republika Srpska parliament adopted a resolution demanding that the President of the republic (Dodik) ignore the subpoenas of the Bosnian court.
The United States meanwhile has said that the statements and actions of Dodik and the Republika Srpska parliament pose a threat to the Republika Srpska itself, Bosnia and the entire Balkans region. Together with the EU and Great Britain they have warned that should Republika Srpska declare independence, it will mean the end of the Republic. How this is carried out remains to be seen unless military force is used to oust the Republika Srpska government, retake Banja Luka, and impose Bosnian governance over a population of about 1.5 million people who are vehemently against the concept.
Serbia, which has a military strength of about 22,500 and a civilian reserve of about 1.7 million, would also be likely to become involved, with Belgrade remaining angry that the EU and NATO bombed it in 1999. An estimated 1,500 Serbian civilians died. Moscow is unlikely to remain on the sidelines.
For now, it appears the situation has long slipped out of the West’s and Bosnian hands. Whether the EU and NATO have the will to impose another military excursion onto the Eastern borders of the European Union remains to be seen.
Further Reading
A New European Country In The Making? An Introduction To Republika Srpska
