Russia’s Energy Strategy Until 2050: New Government Report Released

Russia’s Energy Strategy: Crude Oil Production and Export Outlook to 2050 – a document outlining the country’s vision for the energy sector and response to global challenges – was approved by Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin on Monday. It provides a conservative approach to crude oil production, aiming to stabilize output at approximately 10.84 million barrels per day (540 million tons annually) through to 2050.

It shows that Russia holds several decades’ worth of oil reserves, enough natural gas to last a century, and coal sufficient for 500 years at current production levels. It illustrates that Russia possesses the world’s largest energy reserves and is well positioned to supply traditional energy resources to global markets and preserve its role as a major producer.

According to the date, Russia holds more than 31 billion tons of proven oil reserves, which is enough for over 65 years of production at current rates. Russia ranks third globally in oil reserves and second in output, accounting for 10% of the world’s supply, and also has significant untapped resources to sustain oil and condensate production at no less than 540 million tons a year and build spare capacity to respond to shifts in global demand.

In natural gas, Russia leads the world with 63.4 trillion cubic meters of reserves and is the second-largest producer, contributing 16% of global output. Current reserves would cover 100 years of production, the report noted.

Russia’s coal resources are estimated at 272.7 billion tons, sufficient to last more than 500 years. Russia ranks fifth in global coal reserves and sixth in production.

Russia is also a major player in uranium, holding 705,000 tons – the fourth-largest reserves worldwide – and accounting for 5% of global output. The reserves ensure the stable operation of the country’s nuclear energy sector.

The report also said that rising demand for lithium, nickel, rare earths, aluminum, and other metals, will open up “new opportunities” for the efficient development of Russia’s mineral resource base.

The energy strategy outlined steps to fast-track infrastructure projects and create conditions for redirecting oil, gas, and refined product exports to new “friendly” markets. Plans include expanding transshipment capacity at Arctic and Far Eastern ports via the Northern Sea Route.

The document also looked at stress scenarios, including a faster global shift to renewables by 2050, but said the risk was low as it would require a 20% drop in energy use and triple the investment in alternatives, placing a heavy burden on consumers and the world economy.

The report emphasized that fossil fuels are expected to remain the backbone of global energy supply at least through 2050. Liquefied natural gas is projected to play an increasingly important role in global trade due to its flexible logistics, intensifying competition in the market.