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The US President, Donald Trump, has asked – and agreed – to purchase 3 million tonnes of diesel oil from Russia to offset American shortages, following a telephone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Trump posted on his ‘Truth Social’ platform that “I have just concluded a highly successful discussion with President Vladimir Putin of Russia, wherein it was agreed that Russia will immediately supply over 300,000 tonnes of diesel fuel to the American and global marketplace, another 500,000 tonnes during the month of November, and 1,000,000 tonnes immediately thereafter. Based on the condition of their diesel refineries, Russia will then deliver, within a short period of time, 3,000,000 tonnes of diesel fuel. Diesel prices for Americans and, indeed, the world, will be COMING DOWN, IN RECORD NUMBERS, AND FAST! Lower prices for Americans, especially our Great Farmers, Ranchers, and Truckers, are my greatest priority.”
Fuel prices have rocketed due to Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a strategically sensitive choke point that was the passageway for 20% of the global oil supplies before the war. While costs have risen for motorists – with a gallon of fuel now averaging $4.20 – it is the soaring price of diesel, which last month rose to a record high of $6.52, that has inflicted the most political damage to Trump and the Republicans as November’s midterm approach. Diesel is the main supply chain fuel, and a rise in its costs feeds into consumer prices and hurts US farmers, who need to operate machinery.
With Russian Urals diesel currently priced at $95.74 a barrel, the commercial value of the transaction at current prices is worth about $287 million, although Trump would have negotiated a significant discount on that.
Trump has recently criticised Ukraine for attacking Russian diesel refineries, calling on Zelenskyy to choose alternative targets. The Ukrainian leader rejected the request unless Russia accepted a reciprocal de-escalation plan that would stop Moscow attacking Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.
Trump’s willingness to reach an agreement with Putin that will lower fuel costs comes despite significant Western criticism of the deal. However, as President Putin noted in his remarks at the Valdai Club last week here, Trump is a President that puts America first. A trilateral meeting between Presidents Trump, Xi and Putin has also been proposed to take place at the upcoming APEC summit in Shenzhen, China, from November 18-19 this year. No concrete decisions on that have yet been made.
Other elements also point to a potential resurgence in United States-Russia economic ties. Russian Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov said earlier this week that the United States and Russia are discussing a whole range of economic projects that would be mutually and economically beneficial, stating that “Discussions are under way on a whole range of possible projects for economic cooperation.” He added that during their meetings, Russian and US officials discussed questions of possible contacts and cooperation in various economic projects, without specifying what these were.
What happens next in the political spin context will be the most interesting part of the agreement. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). Americans consume about 3.6 million barrels of diesel oil daily. However, with the Iran situation interfering with the standard US production-export processes, it is unclear exactly how importing Russian diesel oil will impact the US market. Based on the current usage of 3.6 million barrels a day of diesel oil, the Russia deal equates to less than 24 hours consumption – hardly enough to make a significant difference. US energy policy experts seem to agree, suggesting the impact on prices will be minimal.
While the current Western political leadership will be aghast at the deal – Ukraine’s current leader Volodymyr Zelensky has called it a ‘betrayal’ – the actual motivation may instead be to sow discontent between the current European leadership and the general public, especially if Trump can somehow show that diesel prices are reducing in the United States. Trump, Putin and Russia would largely gain the credit for that, while European consumers would demand the same treatment – putting pressure on politicians to resume some Russian imports.
Public discontent in Europe is already high, with many Europeans feeling they are now regarded as secondary to the needs of Ukraine – a non-EU member. The German Chancellor, Frederich Merz, is facing the lowest-ever popularity rankings ever for such a position, while France and Belgium have been enduring riots. While these are not purely related to oil prices, they are part of a huge wave of discontent developing throughout Europe. The average price of diesel across all 27 EU member states is €1,523 per litre as of January 2026. It is currently priced at €2.149 in October – a rise of 41.1%. European consumers will be demanding to know why the United States can buy oil from Russia – while they cannot. Demands upon European politicians to end support for the war in Ukraine will only increase – making it politically more difficult to maintain support for Kiev – especially if more social unrest breaks out. That would make it an opportune time to cut a deal with Putin.
Meanwhile, in the next round of Ukrainian political dancing, President Trump’s envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner may visit Moscow in late October – prior to the proposed trilateral US-Russia-China meeting in Shenzhen – after discussions with Ukrainian negotiators and European officials in Miami. How Zelensky and the Europeans react to Trump’s Russian oil deal – he is well known for his belligerence and rapid temper when criticised – will be an important next step. Trump may begin to feel that cooperation with Russia and China is more fiscally advantageous than cooperation with Ukraine and Europe.
