Russia’s relationships with Europe vary from warm, with trade partners such as Hungary, Serbia, and Slovakia, to the frigid (most of the European Union and the UK). In between are lesser discussed regions in the Balkans with closer historical ties to Moscow than to Brussels. We examine some of these borderline areas and provide analysis and updates where appropriate along the Russia-European axis.
Our analysis of Putin’s speech at SPIEF including specific sections on the current global and Russian economic conditions, BRICS, Eurasian infrastructure development, sanctions, Russian development and the meaning of sovereignty. It is essential reading for all European and Eurasian development analysts.
The seizing by French and British military personal of a ‘Russian’ tanker in the North Atlantic raises important questions of international maritime law, the imposition of sanctions, diplomatic protocols and the overall intent. We look into this strange event that involves not just France and Russia, but also impacts European relations with Madagascar and Cameroon.
Armenia is holding Parliamentary elections in a few days, with the Russian and Armenian Presidents discussing developments within the Eurasian Economic Union. We take a look at Armenia’s choices between the EAEU and the EU as the political temperature heats up and tensions over Armenia increase. .
The Armenian Foreign Minister has firmly rebuffed European media claims that the country is looking to exit the Eurasian Economic Un ion and wants to join the EU. He stated that Armenia has no intention of taking such a step, that it is unconstitutional, and not on any development agenda. Armenia has no European border, while its trade with the EU is just 7.5% of its total compared to 38% with Russia.
The Russian Central Bank has won its law suit against Euroclear in the Moscow Arbitration Court, although it is at present unclear what actions will be taken in Russia and when. Also pending is a €181.5 billion case at the General Court of Justice of the European Union, to which the EU Council must respond with a defence by the end of this month.
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Serbia, which despite not being in the European Union is affected by the pending EU ban on Russian gas imports, is discussing with Russia’s Gazprom an extension to their LNG supplies. However, gas is not the only Russian energy resource Serbia is interested in.
Russia’s President Putin has met with the recently elected president of Republika Srpska, Sinisa Karan. The Republika is a largely autonomous part of Bosnia & Herzegovina, an EU candidate state in the Balkans. Consequently, the geopolitical situation largely created by the breakup of Yugoslavia remains highly complicated. The Republika wishes to continue relations with Moscow at a time when Bosnia & Herzegovina and the European Union does not. We discuss the current state of play and the bilateral relations between Moscow and Banja Luka.
Russia’s President Putin gave a detailed speech on May 9 (Victory Day) in which he discussed his thoughts and Russia’s strategy as concerns its immediate direction towards the Global South. He commented specifically about Central Asia, the Middle East, South Asia and China as well as Europe, and how he sees global developments pan out. This article will be of interest to all Russia-watchers, geostrategic analysts as well as politicians in the West and Global South.
The United States has effectively sanctioned Russia out of the European lubricants and engine oil markets by insisting that Gazprom Neft sell its stakes in Serbia’s NIS. This will make Europe more dependent on alternative American sourced products typically costing four to five times more.
Kazakhstan is having to redirect oil exports flows away from Germany due to Ukrainian refusals to open the Druzhba pipeline to the EU. Supplies are instead being redirected to Russia and the Caspian states. Kazakhstan has been supplying about 2.5% of Germany’s total annual oil imports, with the current situation increasing more pressure on Germany’s fragile economic state.
We deep dive the UAE’s decision to leave OPEC from May 1 and examine the impact on Russian, Asian and Global markets, and assess what other oil related supply shocks could manifest in these markets over the short, medium and longe terms.
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